There was a series of powerful flares on the Sun, September 7-9, 2017. Forecast of geomagnetic storms.
On September 7, a series of flares occurred over the Sun, the Laboratory of X-ray Astronomy of the Sun of the Lebedev Physical Institute named after RAS reported.
The photo shows the emission of solar plasma from flash X9.3 (frontal view from the Earth). The photograph was taken by the LASCO C3 instrument on the SOHO satellite.
During the recorded solar flare X9.3, a large release of the cosmic matter occurred and directed to the Earth. The sun thing evidenced by data received from cosmic solar chronographs - unique instruments that observe the outer layers of the solar atmosphere and plasma flows in them. The speed of the ejection in the process of being reconfirmed, but, proceeding from the usual values for such events - at least 1000 km per second - tomorrow, clouds of plasma will be coming to our planet, thrown out of the atmosphere of the Sun by the immense force of the explosion. The characteristic size of such clouds when they reach the Earth's orbit is up to 100 million kilometers and more. Therefore, this means that, in addition to the impact on the Earth's magnetic field, our planet expects to dive for 1-2 days in a red-hot substance, which was yesterday a part of the Sun's atmosphere.
The mass ejection from flash X9.3 reached the Earth on September 8th. The plasma cloud from the Sun came to the orbit of our planet about 12 hours before the expected time. Therefore, it means that its speed exceeded the expected 1.5 times, and the impact on the Earth produced with more power than planned.
On Earth, there is a magnetic storm level 4 on a 5-point scale. The strength of the event is about ten times greater than predicted. In Canada, which is now on the night side of the Earth, there are intense auroras at high and medium latitude. The storm is of a planetary nature.
The flash of class X 1.3 occurred on September 7 in the evening, and its source was the active region No. 2673, which previously threw out three flares of class X and some flashes of class M.
For September 8 from this group of spots fixed flashes M1.2, M1.3, M3.9 and many other flares of different power. The most powerful M7.8 accompanied by the ejection of the coronal substance towards the Earth. After 20 minutes there was a flash of class M8.1.
The forecast of magnetic storms from September 7-9, 2017:
|The probability of a magnetic storm||35%||35%||35%|
|The probability of a strong magnetic storm||50%||50%||50%|
27-day forecast of magnetic storms: